A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
